Q. I’ve got about $340,000 in C, S and I Funds. I have contributed regularly for past 13 years into just the C, S and I. I have $145,000 from a non-TSP balanced fund that I just cashed out of, so I could roll into TSP. Should I roll it all into G fund based upon the current market outlook? My guess is that stock funds are pretty much peaked out and will drop significantly. Might be the one chance I’d want to take at trying to time the market. The plan would be to transfer out of the G fund when the market is low.
A. If you want to try to time the market, you’re on your own. You have to choose your bets, and you’ll live with the results. You might want to try to assign some probabilities to your predictions and best before you put your life savings at risk, however. I suspect that you’re overlooking the risk of being wrong in your predictions, or how you’ll know when your bet has run its course. A smarter bet is to put your money into the right asset allocation scheme and keep it there until it’s not right any more. I’m not sure if you realize it or not, but you would have done better over the past 13 years if you’d invested in a more diversified portfolio that also included the G and F Funds.